Probability -- Can Nuclear War Really Happen? | Teen Ink

Probability -- Can Nuclear War Really Happen?

December 10, 2021
By BK_99 BRONZE, Carrollton, Texas
BK_99 BRONZE, Carrollton, Texas
1 article 0 photos 0 comments

The world we live in today could be destroyed in 30-minutes (or less). Humans have had this capability since the 1930s. Nuclear bombs were developed, almost perfected, for this exact reason; yet, civilians rarely entertain the idea of a country launching a missile at a foe. Why?


Nuclear weapons were created at the end of World War II to not only assert hegemony but establish power. With the U.S. and Russia at the forefront of nuclear production, other countries did not challenge them due to fear of what the retaliation would look like. 


Unfortunately, nuclear weapons have not always been kept at bay. After the Japanese launched a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, Franklin Roosevelt funded the “Manhattan Project” to develop a weapon strong enough to destroy the adversary. Even after the request for the surrender, Japan refused and this resulted in the US dropping two atomic bombs, nicknamed ‘Little Boy’ and ‘Fat Man’destroying “Japan’s power to make war.” While this attack destroyed Japan for decades, there was no retention levied on the U.S.


Thankfully, nuclear weapons have not been used often. Two of the main reasons are the location of the weapons as well as the military doctrine called Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). As we all know, nuclear weapons are located in a secured location that nobody knows. Which makes it harder for our adversaries to attack because we can send it back at them. If there is a chance that your opponent can strike back with the same effect that you have given to them, the country will opt to keep our world intact. Of course, some adversaries, like North Korea, have a mindset of “use it or lose it.” However, the probability of the tension rising to that level remains incredibly low due to the belief in MAD and diplomacy. 


You might wonder… What about those developing or developed countries that do not have nuclear weapons or even a weapon to retaliate with? For those countries, the US and other allies created several military alliances and treaties that will protect them in exchange for economic incentives. One of the big alliances is called the US Nuclear Umbrella, which falls under the North Atlantic Treaty of Organization (NATO). Mainly supported by military superpowers of the world, if a country were to get attacked by hypothetically, China, it is the US and allies’ government’s duty to reinforce and help them retaliate or even resolve the situation. 


Even with these protections and doctrines, there is always a chance that someone or some group can show reckless behavior based on their own religious or systematic beliefs. However, as we have all seen or heard through the release of files by Snowden, the NSA, and other security agencies can figure and prevent such attacks.


With so many variables in our world: diplomacy, the Nuclear Umbrella, and M.A.D. Military doctrine, we live in a world without nuclear war. While the probability of the War occurring is low, the magnitude will be significant. Still, the concern for the Nuclear War or even the usage of the nuclear war should remain low considering the economic and diplomatic stability of our foreign relationships. 


The author's comments:

I wrote this article as I am interested in international relations of our current events. 

 

ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/01/Hair-Trigger%20FAQ.pdf


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