The caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Iranian Prime Minister met nonchalantly at the summit of World Economic Forum. Then, out of the box, after a few mundane hours, something irrevocably un-mundane happens: Iran attacks Pakistan. The attack was aimed at what the Iranian foreign minister defined as a ‘Iranian terrorist group’ — Jaish Al-Adl. With two missiles landing at the territory of Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan; Pakistan strongly opposed the attack, claiming that two children were killed in it and three injured. Its anger over the territorial interference on the border of Pakistan is reflected by the fact that Pakistan urgently summons back its ambassador in addition to immediately stopping all the ‘high-level’ diplomatic activities between the two otherwise friendly nations (For the time being). The attack marked a a tumultuous juncture in the unfolding story of smooth navigation of economic development that Pakistan was aiming to achieve together with Iran. Many journalists pointed out to the sophistication of non-violent response that Pakistan undertook. However, a few more hours pass, and Pakistan’s foreign and defence ministry decides to attack Iran. Within 24 hours, Pakistan sent ‘highly coordinated’ strikes back to Iran. The foreign ministry of Pakistan provided confirmation of the military response attack by Pakistan that it said was targeted at, quite similar to what Iran had said in the case of Pakistan, terrorist hideouts in Iran — armed forces in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan, killing more than 7 persons in Iran. Pakistan’s foreign ministry unequivocally said in an official statement: “Pakistan reserves the right right to respond to this illegal act” 

This exchange of arm strikes is a little skirmish that has potential to endanger the security and safety of the global south, especially the fact that all the nations in this region are militarily advanced. From India, Pakistan and China that are nuclear powers to Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran that roll emotionally-driven army groups and technical weaponry and to many other nations, a little spark of fire can turn itself into a blazing inferno, damaging all what the region pertains to itself. There is much to say about Iran’s tendency to supply weapons to different military groups across the world but the ways this particular attack affects Pakistan, a trade brother of Iran, is what determines — at least to some extent — how the face of Pakistan’s future looks like. 

During 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on International trade, Pakistan’s total exports from Iran were $837.62 million. The majority of Pakistan’s imports from Iran of $676.88M, the highest of all, constitute Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products while edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers are around $42.54 million.  Moreover, Pakistan was Iran’s fifth largest export market in the last year. The 900 km long border has always encouraged trade between the two regions, resulting directly in the expansion of industries. In January, both the Iran and Pakistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to “facilitate bilateral trade between the two regions”

Over the years, imports from Iran to Pakistan have increased from $29.5M in 1997, to $614M in 2021. In 2021, however, imports from Pakistan to Iran were merely $311.72M. Although, we generally see a quite a difference in the magnitude of trade that Pakistan does with Iran if it’s compared with other regions, specifically its biggest export partner, the US, to which Pakistan’s exports revolve around $6.19 Billion, Pakistan still runs a large base of exports to Iran. 

However, in the past few years, relations between Tehran and Washington have become more and more soft and easy-going, intrinsically improving the relations between Islamabad and Tehran. This softness has turned it itself into an opportunity for Pakistan to develop a brotherhood with its neighbour because Pakistan’s security lies in the ameliorated relations with its bordering countries. This was reflected by a highly-appreciable development project between Pakistan and Iran named as Pak-Iran gas line project. The gas pipeline is set to be finished by 2024, because of the certain amount that Pakistan owes to Iran for the project.

Emphasis must be put on the violence and terrorist activities that till 2021 were happening in Pakistan, as an aftermath of the post 9-11 war in Afghanistan. 

So, together, Pakistan and Iran’s relations are a treatment to the enduring power of brotherhood and economic growth. But this attack asserts a breakdown of the brotherhood that Pakistan and Iran has achieved till yet. 

So what's the future? 

Surprisingly, despite the sudden vehement opposition that Pakistan has raised towards Iran in response to its airspace violation; it's border has remained open for trade. On Thursday, according to official reports, more than 100 trucks carrying rice, potatoes and certain other goods of key importance to Iran crossed the Iranian border from Pakistani territory. 

So, here comes a very strategic and complex way Pakistan is dealing with this. The fact that Pakistan did tit-for-tat but did not hinder the economic growth that was being carried out through trade between the two regions is a self-explanation of the tactic employed by Pakistan, striking a perfect balance between holding integrity of land, and doing anything in response to that if that integrity demands it and still undo any ensued effect of that attack for the sake of more economic development. Pakistan aims to obliterate any chances of future invasion by any power, but Pakistan also showcases quite a gravitas of economic development with Iran, specifically Pakistan. Currently amidst a multitude of issues—from elections to Baloch marchers—this attack could have been an offset of Pakistan’s dignity and a slap of its so-called respect in global politics but it did not happen so. Pakistan made it crystal clear that its territorial integrity comes first but also highlighted its dire need for economic recovery, that Iran, although to just some extent was providing. (Iran is a key country of trade with Pakistan if looked at holistically) 

Many countries have spoken about this seismic event, including the USA, China, Russia, India, Turkey and Afghanistan but all have similarity of meaning in their linguistically differing statements: peace between the region. 

In future, what Pakistan must do in order to protect its land is to fill up the trust deficit that Iran has vibrantly displayed it possesses. Certain peace treaties would do, but for a long term building of good relations coupled with the enhancement of military development, Pakistan must cooperate with Iran in every just cause. 

Secondly, against the mind-boggling backdrop of fully armed neighbourhood between which Pakistan has been standing for quite a time, Iran provides a good deal of security to the state in the Western part of the province — a part that can easily be attacked by a foreign nation given its low security if compared to the Eastern part. Afghanistan is getting on good terms with Pakistan as well, mirrored by the meeting between Afghanistan Prime Minister Mullah Hassan Akhund and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) Chief Maulana Fazlur. This is a pivotal point in relations with Afghanistan as after the war it survived for 20 years, that it blamed partially on Pakistan, added to which is the abrupt repatriation of Afghan refugees; we finally see the two neighbours holding hands instead of arms. Iran, in this case, if provides total security and chooses not to interfere with Pakistan’s border, then Pakistan can safeguard itself from all terrorist threats — from Iran, and farther from Iran. Not to mention the fact that even if there are certain terrorist activities that Iran's feels undermined from, Pakistan must spear-head full responsibility of vanishing them out. This is the only way out to reconcile this weaponry exchange that truly has no sense and meaning. 

The treatment towards the Baloch populations within Pakistan and in Iran remain a source of mistrust between the two nations. Jaish-al-Adl and Iranian soldioers have been involved in long terrorism, with both sides kidnapping and killing their counterparts since 2010. This exchange of weapons between the two groups has been a constant source of fear for Pakistan as well, resulting in souring tensions caused by terrorism. The perpetuation of the attacks between the two groups has been widely criticised but in June 2017, the Foreign office confirmed that the airforce had attacked an Iranian drone flying in Pakistan’s Panjgur territory. In January, 2023, Pakistan even accused Iran of being behind an attack launched by Baloch separatists. With uncountable intrusions between the two nations even before the aforementioned attacks, it is evident that Jan 16th’s intrusions were somehow less-affecting and more lethal than the previous ones. But this has to stop!

The reality is that even if Iran stops from attacking Pakistan in the future and admits its wronging about attacking Pakistan on Jan 16th, without showing an embodiment of full responsibility and courage to fight for the continuation of good relations, that is only reflected by investigating the terrorist hideouts in Pakistan instead of just re-attacking. I have no disagreement to the response to the attack that Pakistan has concluded because it echoes the military profoundness that Pakistan has and its limitations even with its neighbours when coming to its own integrity. However, Pakistan can not, in any way, satisfy the inner threats within the Iranian government with simply re-attacking that may act as a resistance to Iran in working fully with regard to trade and economic development with Pakistan. 

Therefore, this attack is not only an attack but a multifaceted message to the future Prime Minister of Pakistan who will be elected after Feb 8, to whom it screams, underlying the importance of enhancing relations with Pakistan’s neighbours and utilising pragmatic efforts  that are not merely a formality but something of substance that should be channelled to improve the foreign policy of the country.